The Potential Impact of Climate Change and Land Use on Future Soil Erosion, Based on the Example of Southeast Serbia
2022
Authors:
Perović, VeljkoČakmak, Dragan
Mitrović, Miroslava
Pavlović, Pavle
Contributors
Saljnikov, ElmiraMueller, Lothar
Lavrishchev, Anton
Eulenstein, Frank
Document Type:
Book part (Published version)
,
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract:
Soil erosion caused by climate change and
changes in land use increases or decreases
depending on the geographic location, climate
scenarios, precipitation patterns, topographic
potential, and land management practices. Forf
this reason, the impact of climate change on
soil erosion needs to be analysed at the
regional and/or local levels. Bearing in mind
that climate and land use will change in the
future, the purpose of this chapter is to quantify
the current intensity of soil erosion, taking the
Vranjska Valley (southern Serbia) as an
example, to simulate soil losses for 2050 and
2100 due to changes in climate and land use,
and to analyse the spatial and temporal grouping of clusters of soil loss for 2015 and 2100.
The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) of the sediment
delivery ratio (SDR) model integrated with
the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade UniversityPrinceton Ocean Model) regional climate
model was used with the aim of quantifying
erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley
region. The results of research in the Vranjska
Valley region show that average erosion
intensity during 2015 amounted to 5.33 t ha−1
yr−1. According to the A1B scenario, average
annual soil loss is expected to fall for the two
periods in the future, by 6.6% (2050) and
41.8% (2100), mainly as a result of a reduction
in the rainfall erosivity factor. Measures which
could protect soil effectively in the future
include reforestation with drought-resistant
species, soil conservation, no-till practices,
and an evaluation of current erosion models.
Keywords:
Climate change; Soil erosion; Land use; Scenario analysis; ClusteringSource:
Advances in Understanding Soil Degradation, 2022, 207-228Funding / projects:
- Ministry of Science, Technological Development and Innovation of the Republic of Serbia, institutional funding - 200007 (University of Belgrade, Institute for Biological Research 'Siniša Stanković') (RS-MESTD-inst-2020-200007)