TY  - JOUR
AU  - Perović, Veljko
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Pavlović, Dragana
AU  - Matić, Marija
AU  - Čakmak, Dragan
AU  - Mitrović, Miroslava
AU  - Pavlović, Pavle
PY  - 2021
UR  - https://radar.ibiss.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4206
AB  - Land degradation and desertification (LDD) is one of the greatest ecological challenges of today, with climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors a major cause of it. Recent projections of LDD in the Mediterranean region indicate a gradual widening of arid areas due to increased aridity and global warming by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, this study used the MEDALUS method to identify sensitivity to LDD in Western Serbia between 1986 and 2005 and to assess possible effects of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) on land degradation processes by the end of the 21st century. Likewise, analysis of possible major drivers of degradation was conducted using principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA). The study revealed that degradation processes in the study area were found to be most influenced by anthropogenic drivers (34.4%), less so by natural/anthropogenic ones (23.5%), and least by natural factors (20.1%). Results also showed that critical areas of LDD susceptibility account for nearly 37% of the study area, transitional areas cover 35%, while 27% constitutes potentially safe areas. Additionally, critical areas were projected to expand by 33.6% (RCP4.5) and 51.7% (RCP8.5) by 2100 as a result of predicted temperature increases and a reduction in precipitation in the study area. This study also revealed that the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) better explains the impact of climate change on LDD than other indices, bearing in mind the capacity of this index to detect temporal oscillations in drought in the context of climate change, and it is therefore a reliable climate parameter for this method.
PB  - Elsevier B.V.
T2  - Ecological Indicators
T1  - Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios
VL  - 123
DO  - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377
SP  - 107377
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Perović, Veljko and Kadović, Ratko and Đurđević, Vladimir and Pavlović, Dragana and Matić, Marija and Čakmak, Dragan and Mitrović, Miroslava and Pavlović, Pavle",
year = "2021",
abstract = "Land degradation and desertification (LDD) is one of the greatest ecological challenges of today, with climate change resulting from anthropogenic factors a major cause of it. Recent projections of LDD in the Mediterranean region indicate a gradual widening of arid areas due to increased aridity and global warming by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, this study used the MEDALUS method to identify sensitivity to LDD in Western Serbia between 1986 and 2005 and to assess possible effects of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) on land degradation processes by the end of the 21st century. Likewise, analysis of possible major drivers of degradation was conducted using principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA). The study revealed that degradation processes in the study area were found to be most influenced by anthropogenic drivers (34.4%), less so by natural/anthropogenic ones (23.5%), and least by natural factors (20.1%). Results also showed that critical areas of LDD susceptibility account for nearly 37% of the study area, transitional areas cover 35%, while 27% constitutes potentially safe areas. Additionally, critical areas were projected to expand by 33.6% (RCP4.5) and 51.7% (RCP8.5) by 2100 as a result of predicted temperature increases and a reduction in precipitation in the study area. This study also revealed that the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) better explains the impact of climate change on LDD than other indices, bearing in mind the capacity of this index to detect temporal oscillations in drought in the context of climate change, and it is therefore a reliable climate parameter for this method.",
publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",
journal = "Ecological Indicators",
title = "Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios",
volume = "123",
doi = "10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377",
pages = "107377"
}

Perović, V., Kadović, R., Đurđević, V., Pavlović, D., Matić, M., Čakmak, D., Mitrović, M.,& Pavlović, P.. (2021). Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios. in Ecological Indicators
Elsevier B.V.., 123, 107377.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377

Perović V, Kadović R, Đurđević V, Pavlović D, Matić M, Čakmak D, Mitrović M, Pavlović P. Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios. in Ecological Indicators. 2021;123:107377.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377 .

Perović, Veljko, Kadović, Ratko, Đurđević, Vladimir, Pavlović, Dragana, Matić, Marija, Čakmak, Dragan, Mitrović, Miroslava, Pavlović, Pavle, "Major drivers of land degradation risk in Western Serbia: Current trends and future scenarios" in Ecological Indicators, 123 (2021):107377,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107377 . .

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Perović, Veljko
AU  - Kadović, Ratko
AU  - Đurđević, Vladimir
AU  - Braunović, Sonja
AU  - Čakmak, Dragan
AU  - Mitrović, Miroslava
AU  - Pavlović, Pavle
PY  - 2019
UR  - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x
UR  - https://radar.ibiss.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3241
AB  - Climate change is expected to lead to more vigorous environmental changes, including soil erosion. As a reliable tool for predicting the impact of changes in climate and land use, the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model, integrated with the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) regional climate model, was used with the aim of quantifying erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley region by the end of the twenty-first century. The effect of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns in the Vranjska Valley will lead to a 41.84% reduction in average soil loss by the end of the century when compared to the baseline period. The main reason for this decrease in the soil erosion rate in the second half of the century is a 17.19% fall in the total amount of precipitation, the impact of which will inevitably lead to changes in natural and artificial ecosystems. Furthermore, the results of this study highlight the advantages of an integrated approach, combining the effects of climate change and types of land use, for a better and more realistic estimate of future changes in soil erosion.
T2  - Regional Environmental Change
T1  - Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia
DO  - 10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Perović, Veljko and Kadović, Ratko and Đurđević, Vladimir and Braunović, Sonja and Čakmak, Dragan and Mitrović, Miroslava and Pavlović, Pavle",
year = "2019",
abstract = "Climate change is expected to lead to more vigorous environmental changes, including soil erosion. As a reliable tool for predicting the impact of changes in climate and land use, the InVEST sediment delivery ratio model, integrated with the EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model) regional climate model, was used with the aim of quantifying erosion intensity in the Vranjska Valley region by the end of the twenty-first century. The effect of climate change on spatial and temporal patterns in the Vranjska Valley will lead to a 41.84% reduction in average soil loss by the end of the century when compared to the baseline period. The main reason for this decrease in the soil erosion rate in the second half of the century is a 17.19% fall in the total amount of precipitation, the impact of which will inevitably lead to changes in natural and artificial ecosystems. Furthermore, the results of this study highlight the advantages of an integrated approach, combining the effects of climate change and types of land use, for a better and more realistic estimate of future changes in soil erosion.",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
title = "Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x"
}

Perović, V., Kadović, R., Đurđević, V., Braunović, S., Čakmak, D., Mitrović, M.,& Pavlović, P.. (2019). Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia. in Regional Environmental Change.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x

Perović V, Kadović R, Đurđević V, Braunović S, Čakmak D, Mitrović M, Pavlović P. Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia. in Regional Environmental Change. 2019;.
doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x .

Perović, Veljko, Kadović, Ratko, Đurđević, Vladimir, Braunović, Sonja, Čakmak, Dragan, Mitrović, Miroslava, Pavlović, Pavle, "Effects of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion: a case study of the Vranjska Valley, Serbia" in Regional Environmental Change (2019),
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1456-x . .