@conference{
author = "Belanović Simić, Snežana and Perović, Veljko and Đurđević, Vladimir and Miljković, Predrag and Pavlović, Pavle and Čakmak, Dragan and Kadović, Ratko",
year = "2020",
abstract = "The impacts of climate changes on land are being studied from different perspectives,
regarding future scenarios. By the end of century, in Serbia, mean temperature will increase
by more than 2.5 °C, according to RCP4.5 stabilization scenario, and more than 5°C,
according to RCP8.5, constant increasing scenario, with decrease in summer precipitations
(Vuković et al., 2018). The expected climate change will cause unfavorable conditions for
tererestrial ecosystems, adverse soil thermal and water regime. The survey was conducted in
the area of Prijepolje municipality (southeastern Serbia), where many important terrestrial
ecosystems were declared as protected area. Beside natural habitat of Picea omorika, there
are significant complexes of coniferous, decidious and mixed forests, pastures and
agricultural areas. The aim of the paper is to analyze the SPEI drought index for different
terrestrial ecosystems. EURO-CORDEKS datasets for nine different models and two
representative scenarios were used. According to IPCC-AR5, recommended climatological
periods are: 2016-2035(near future), 2046-2065(middle of the century) and 2081-2100(end of
the century). The SPEI was calculated over a six-month period (March-August), which
allows changes dynamics monitoring during the warmer part of the year, especially for
periods when maximum precipitation is expected in western Serbia (May-June-July) and
according to other projections, the largest deficits are expected. According to RCP4.5, the
SPEI shows that most of Prijepolje municipality will be affected by normal, moderate and
partly severe droughts (2081-2100), with coniferous forests and natural grasslands being the
most vulnerable, followed by mixed and deciduous forests. According to RCP8.5, SPEI
indicates the occurrence of normal and moderate drought for 2016-2035 and 2046-2065
periods, while in 2081-2100 period, whole area is affected by severe drought with areas under
the extreme drought influence, particularly coniferous and mixed forests being the most
vulnerable ecosystems. Regarding results for forest and natural grassland ecosystems,
planning and management measures should be taken carefully, due to fragility of these
ecosystems.",
publisher = "Belgrade: Serbian Soil Science Society",
journal = "Book of Abstracts: Symposium with international participation Irrigation and drainage in the light of climate change; 2020 Sep 9-11; Vršac, Serbia",
title = "Analysis of impact of drought on land in the area of Prijepolje municipality",
pages = "85-85",
url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_ibiss_6156"
}
