Analysis of impact of drought on land in the area of Prijepolje municipality

Abstract

The impacts of climate changes on land are being studied from different perspectives, regarding future scenarios. By the end of century, in Serbia, mean temperature will increase by more than 2.5 °C, according to RCP4.5 stabilization scenario, and more than 5°C, according to RCP8.5, constant increasing scenario, with decrease in summer precipitations (Vuković et al., 2018). The expected climate change will cause unfavorable conditions for tererestrial ecosystems, adverse soil thermal and water regime. The survey was conducted in the area of Prijepolje municipality (southeastern Serbia), where many important terrestrial ecosystems were declared as protected area. Beside natural habitat of Picea omorika, there are significant complexes of coniferous, decidious and mixed forests, pastures and agricultural areas. The aim of the paper is to analyze the SPEI drought index for different terrestrial ecosystems. EURO-CORDEKS datasets for nine different models and two representative scenarios were used. According to IPCC-AR5, recommended climatological periods are: 2016-2035(near future), 2046-2065(middle of the century) and 2081-2100(end of the century). The SPEI was calculated over a six-month period (March-August), which allows changes dynamics monitoring during the warmer part of the year, especially for periods when maximum precipitation is expected in western Serbia (May-June-July) and according to other projections, the largest deficits are expected. According to RCP4.5, the SPEI shows that most of Prijepolje municipality will be affected by normal, moderate and partly severe droughts (2081-2100), with coniferous forests and natural grasslands being the most vulnerable, followed by mixed and deciduous forests. According to RCP8.5, SPEI indicates the occurrence of normal and moderate drought for 2016-2035 and 2046-2065 periods, while in 2081-2100 period, whole area is affected by severe drought with areas under the extreme drought influence, particularly coniferous and mixed forests being the most vulnerable ecosystems. Regarding results for forest and natural grassland ecosystems, planning and management measures should be taken carefully, due to fragility of these ecosystems.