Comparative analysis of different strategies for the control of classical swine fever in the Republic of Serbia using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Several different strategies for control and eradication of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) were compared using a Monte Carlo method-based simulation model. Th e control strategy analyzed in this paper, in addition to other CSF control measures, includes application of biosecurity measures on pig farms and rural backyard holdings. Elements of the control strategy are based on applicable regulations and include the simulation of detection of the disease, setting up the protected and surveillance zones, standstill of pig movements and restricted movement of animals, vehicles, equipment, and people with strong control measures in protection and surveillance zones, euthanasia of susceptible pigs, protective vaccination of pigs, compensation etc. During the simulation, diff erent output parameters were compared such as: duration of epizootic of a disease, number of affected holdings and animals, direct costs such as those for dead or culled animals, costs of surveillance, disposal of infectious materials, cleaning and disinfection. Depopulation of aff ected animals with early diagnostics and vaccination in protection and surveillance zone proved to be the most eff ective measures to stop spreading and eradication of the disease. However, during the simulation, systematic implementation of biosecurity measures in all pig production clusters demonstrated to be appropriate strategy for sustainablecontrol of CSF and setting up a stable epizootiological situation.